In the closing keynote presentations at IESF Automotive 2020 held recently, Henrik Fisker, the Founder and CEO of Fisker Inc. and an iconic automotive designer, shared his views on the topic “Driving Electric Vehicles Technology and Adoption, The Final Part of the Journey”.

IESF is a global conference program for automotive design engineers, managers, and executives. In its 20th year, the event was held virtually for the first time.

Lithium ion battery to be used for a long time

Henrik Fisker remarked that the transition into full electric vehicle (EV) will have huge impact on vehicle design because almost all next generation of vehicles will have battery in the floor, which will change the structure proportion.

“We can’t make super low sedans any more like in the past, so it will fundamentally change the proportion of vehicle when we move forward,” he said.

He also unveiled that Fisker Inc. has done a lot of research on battery, and discovered that there would be no solid state battery storage coming around the corner as it is too difficult to scale up. Therefore, he expects that lithium ion battery will be used in EVs for a long time, though Fisker is open to use different battery technologies.

Henrik Fisker, the Founder and CEO of Fisker Inc.

Most of the EV startups may not survive

Automotive is an industry which has to move much in the digital transformation trend. “So in five years, we are going to see a totally different mix from what we see today. You probably will see traditional car industry to shrink quite a lot, maybe with a few brands disappearing and some new brands coming up,” commented Henrik Fisker.

According to him, the new brands will emerge from two sides, one will be the EV startups and it will be a few of those.

“In my view, 90% of the EV startups will not make it because most people who go in underestimate how difficult it is to enter this industry and what needs to be done to manufacture vehicles in high volume,” he explained.

The other side is technology brands that today are now associating with vehicles. Henrik Fisker believes that these technology brands will end up manufacturing vehicles or collaborating with EV startups or automakers to manufacture vehicles.

“I don't know whether technology brands will necessarily make their own branded cars because once they do that, it is a whole different game. But I could see EV startups joining up with technology companies and get access to these technologies and introduce new technologies,” he continued.

Not all cars to be fully autonomous in short future

Regarding the bottlenecks in engineering for the future, Henrik Fisker considers software as the biggest bottleneck.  

“The biggest risk in car making in the future is clearly software. It is the biggest bottleneck, it is where you have to spend most work, it is also sometimes the easiest to fix,” he said.

When asked about how autonomous vehicles will play an important part, Henrik Fisker commented that not all cars will be fully autonomous in 20 years from now. He expects that there will be a mix of vehicles in the next 25 years, with some form of mobility being autonomous in three or four years.

“You may see certain conditions where I believe you can go fully autonomous, (like) when there are no kids running in the freeway, so we should be able to take a little bit of risk. So we see different technologies to deploy in different times, and that is also why the idea of having sort of autonomous shuttle is really cool,” he explained.

“The problem is we do have children running around the city, and that is the issue when somebody jumps in front of a shuttle where there is no driver and get killed. I don’t think we want to see that. That’s why I see the issue. These are the things we have to figure out,” he emphasized.

Fisker Inc. will partner with Magna to develop the intelligent FI-Pilot, the next generation of driver assistance.

New entrants the major influential factor

Meanwhile, in the closing keynote presentations, Martin, O'Brien, Senior Vice President Integrated Electrical Systems, Siemens Digital Industries Software, discussed the major factors that drive the future automotive industry, which include the new entrants that “grab EV headlines”.

Tesla, one of the world’s most valuable automakers, was cited as an example by Martin, O'Brien. He pointed out that Tesla has some great engineering but also focused on a vision people buy into and on building a life-style brand: innovates in order to accelerate the world’s transition to clean, sustainable energy.

In addition, Tesla completes the important targets by themselves. The automaker tears products and systems apart, and then builds them up in a smarter and more efficient way. It developed novel batteries, optimized battery electronics, established charging infrastructure, as well as designed its own chips for autonomous driving.

Tesla is not the only new entrant. According to Martin, O'Brien, there are 421 companies developing EV and light trucks, and there are 188 companies having autonomous driving programs announced. He also shared the same view that many of these companies will fail, but emphasized that some will make it.

Tesla has become one of the world’s most valuable automakers.

Survivors to fulfil new C.A.S.E. requirements

Notably, Martin, O'Brien also pinpointed that that digitalization changes everything. The survivors have to respond to C.A.S.E. (Connected, Autonomous, Shared and Electric) requirements and focus on electronics and software.

“New entrants do not have to play the game the same way. They can choose their targeting key technologies and differentiate their offerings,” he explained. “However, established players must deal with parallel challenges. It means they need to sustain its business in the present via more efficient production, and proactively engage to drive the future via changing the mindset to think of new business models at the same time.”

Martin, O'Brien described digitalization as the “biggest transition in 100 years”. This transition will demand exceptional change management, and companies have to change from “quality manufacturer” to “innovator”.

He mentioned that GM is changing its direction to a new vision targets: zero crashes, zero emissions and zero congestion and it is expected that GM will achieve through the creation of C.A.S.E. mobility services.

An accelerating shift to software defined vehicle

The approach of “focus on E/E (Electrical/Electronic) systems development” should be adopted to support the digitalization transition, by employing BMSD (Business Modeling and Software Design) paradigms and software defined vehicle. The shift to software defined vehicle is accelerating, said Martin, O'Brien.

He also explained the technical challenges of implementing E/E systems development approach in detail. He emphasized that E/E systems development needs coherency across domains and E/E architecture drives detailed systems design. On the other hand, system digitalization supports capture of need across all vehicle models, and facilitates virtual validation against that need.

In the closing keynote presentations at IESF Automotive 2020 held recently, Henrik Fisker, the Founder and CEO of Fisker Inc. and an iconic automotive designer, shared his views on the topic “Driving Electric Vehicles Technology and Adoption, The Final Part of the Journey”.

IESF is a global conference program for automotive design engineers, managers, and executives. In its 20th year, the event was held virtually for the first time.

Lithium ion battery to be used for a long time

Henrik Fisker remarked that the transition into full electric vehicle (EV) will have huge impact on vehicle design because almost all next generation of vehicles will have battery in the floor, which will change the structure proportion.

“We can’t make super low sedans any more like in the past, so it will fundamentally change the proportion of vehicle when we move forward,” he said.

He also unveiled that Fisker Inc. has done a lot of research on battery, and discovered that there would be no solid state battery storage coming around the corner as it is too difficult to scale up. Therefore, he expects that lithium ion battery will be used in EVs for a long time, though Fisker is open to use different battery technologies.

Henrik Fisker, the Founder and CEO of Fisker Inc.

Most of the EV startups may not survive

Automotive is an industry which has to move much in the digital transformation trend. “So in five years, we are going to see a totally different mix from what we see today. You probably will see traditional car industry to shrink quite a lot, maybe with a few brands disappearing and some new brands coming up,” commented Henrik Fisker.

According to him, the new brands will emerge from two sides, one will be the EV startups and it will be a few of those.

“In my view, 90% of the EV startups will not make it because most people who go in underestimate how difficult it is to enter this industry and what needs to be done to manufacture vehicles in high volume,” he explained.

The other side is technology brands that today are now associating with vehicles. Henrik Fisker believes that these technology brands will end up manufacturing vehicles or collaborating with EV startups or automakers to manufacture vehicles.

“I don't know whether technology brands will necessarily make their own branded cars because once they do that, it is a whole different game. But I could see EV startups joining up with technology companies and get access to these technologies and introduce new technologies,” he continued.

Not all cars to be fully autonomous in short future

Regarding the bottlenecks in engineering for the future, Henrik Fisker considers software as the biggest bottleneck.  

“The biggest risk in car making in the future is clearly software. It is the biggest bottleneck, it is where you have to spend most work, it is also sometimes the easiest to fix,” he said.

When asked about how autonomous vehicles will play an important part, Henrik Fisker commented that not all cars will be fully autonomous in 20 years from now. He expects that there will be a mix of vehicles in the next 25 years, with some form of mobility being autonomous in three or four years.

“You may see certain conditions where I believe you can go fully autonomous, (like) when there are no kids running in the freeway, so we should be able to take a little bit of risk. So we see different technologies to deploy in different times, and that is also why the idea of having sort of autonomous shuttle is really cool,” he explained.

“The problem is we do have children running around the city, and that is the issue when somebody jumps in front of a shuttle where there is no driver and get killed. I don’t think we want to see that. That’s why I see the issue. These are the things we have to figure out,” he emphasized.

Fisker Inc. will partner with Magna to develop the intelligent FI-Pilot, the next generation of driver assistance.

New entrants the major influential factor

Meanwhile, in the closing keynote presentations, Martin, O'Brien, Senior Vice President Integrated Electrical Systems, Siemens Digital Industries Software, discussed the major factors that drive the future automotive industry, which include the new entrants that “grab EV headlines”.

Tesla, one of the world’s most valuable automakers, was cited as an example by Martin, O'Brien. He pointed out that Tesla has some great engineering but also focused on a vision people buy into and on building a life-style brand: innovates in order to accelerate the world’s transition to clean, sustainable energy.

In addition, Tesla completes the important targets by themselves. The automaker tears products and systems apart, and then builds them up in a smarter and more efficient way. It developed novel batteries, optimized battery electronics, established charging infrastructure, as well as designed its own chips for autonomous driving.

Tesla is not the only new entrant. According to Martin, O'Brien, there are 421 companies developing EV and light trucks, and there are 188 companies having autonomous driving programs announced. He also shared the same view that many of these companies will fail, but emphasized that some will make it.

Tesla has become one of the world’s most valuable automakers.

Survivors to fulfil new C.A.S.E. requirements

Notably, Martin, O'Brien also pinpointed that that digitalization changes everything. The survivors have to respond to C.A.S.E. (Connected, Autonomous, Shared and Electric) requirements and focus on electronics and software.

“New entrants do not have to play the game the same way. They can choose their targeting key technologies and differentiate their offerings,” he explained. “However, established players must deal with parallel challenges. It means they need to sustain its business in the present via more efficient production, and proactively engage to drive the future via changing the mindset to think of new business models at the same time.”

Martin, O'Brien described digitalization as the “biggest transition in 100 years”. This transition will demand exceptional change management, and companies have to change from “quality manufacturer” to “innovator”.

He mentioned that GM is changing its direction to a new vision targets: zero crashes, zero emissions and zero congestion and it is expected that GM will achieve through the creation of C.A.S.E. mobility services.

An accelerating shift to software defined vehicle

The approach of “focus on E/E (Electrical/Electronic) systems development” should be adopted to support the digitalization transition, by employing BMSD (Business Modeling and Software Design) paradigms and software defined vehicle. The shift to software defined vehicle is accelerating, said Martin, O'Brien.

He also explained the technical challenges of implementing E/E systems development approach in detail. He emphasized that E/E systems development needs coherency across domains and E/E architecture drives detailed systems design. On the other hand, system digitalization supports capture of need across all vehicle models, and facilitates virtual validation against that need.